A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
